10.Year Yields (TNX1)

3mo v.10yr. (5d R) .: SHORT TERM: (IRX): TNX (3mo vs. 10yr) : FannieMae (FNM)

...

T Bonds : Recent GAP: TNX-IRX: 42.67-28.50= 1.417% R: 1.497(26.apr.) : Ratio

Cycle changing?: http://img154.echo.cx/img154/5214/10trina8hw.gif

Weekly Ten Year Yield (TNX) Chart: TY1! : Mo. : CrTrade ................ +KBhomes (KBH)+

RYJUX ¡V This fund is structured to go opposite the price of the 10 year bond. As the yield on bonds rises, the price of the bond goes down, and this fund goes up.

3 Month T-Bill rates have been climbing for Months. Greenspan is Frustrated.

To me, it looks like rates are about to shoot up from 4.27% and Bonds will rollover. Perhaps this is THE STORM about to break.

Other Weekly charts:

10 Year yield (TNX).: Euro, in US$ (XEU): FannieMae (FNM)....: FreddieMac (FRE).

.

3 Mos TBill (IRX)...: Gold (38099901).. : Gold Stocks (HUI)..: Oil Stocks (OSX).

UK.10year.GILT......: Bank Stocks (BKX).: KB Homes (KBH)...: Pulte Homes (PHM).

Short Term rates RUN OPPOSITE to Equities ... Monthly

.

- - -

Central bank dollar reserves

Country........ Holding %.Top15

Japan..........: $820Bn :27.2 %

China..........: $525Bn :17.4 %

Eurozone.......: $360Bn :12.0 %

Taiwan.........: $230Bn : 7.6 %

US.............: $180Bn : 6.0 % : Top.5= 70.3%

South Korea....: $175Bn : 5.8 %

India..........: $120Bn : 4.0 %

Hong Kong......: $115Bn : 3.8 %

Singapore......: $100Bn : 3.5 %

Russia.........: $ 95Bn : 3.2 % : Top10= 90.4%

Switzerland....: $ 70Bn : 2.3 %

Mexico.........: $ 65Bn : 2.2 %

Malaysia.......: $ 60Bn : 2.0 %

Brazil.........: $ 50Bn : 1.7 %

UK.............: $ 45Bn : 1.5 %

TOP 15........ $3,010Bn : 100 %

. . .

Gold and Interest rates move together

= = = = =

THREADS:

GILT: http://www.advfn.com/cmn/pbb/thread.php3?id=8720486

GOLD: http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=948390

OIL.: http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=8396002

WIND: http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=2169731

RE..: http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=8765933

CORN: http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=2762560

LINKS:

INO's Market Comment..: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CBOT_ZBM5&v=i

Bond Mkt News /Charts.: FT/bonds

Bank Credit Analyst...: http://www.bcaresearch.com/

Credit Bubble Bulletin: http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

Free Mkt News Network.: http://www.freemarketnews.com/portfolio/index.php

Paul Nolte /on FNN....: http://www.hinsdaleassociates.com

Online Blogs..........: N.Roubini : Brad.Setser : Brad.Delong : Mish's Blog : HousingBubble

Paul Volcker's Warning: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A38725-2005Apr8.html

Geared Junk Bond Funds: http://www.advfn.com/cmn/pbb/thread.php3?id=8500690

Recent GAP: TNX-IRX: 42.67-28.50= 1.417% R: 1.497 = RATIO

Chart showing Gap Ratio: TNX-to-IRX ... weekly chart

MIND THE GAP: Marking the Turns

Date--- -TNX- -IRX- -GAP-% Ratio

26.apr. 42.67 28.50 1.417% 1.497 Lo?

19.apr. 42.0- 28.5- 1.35 % 1.474 Lo

11.mar. 45.3- 26.9- 1.84 % 1.684 Hi

25.feb. 42.7- 26.7- 1.60 % 1.599 Lo

29.dec. 43.2- 21.8- 2.14 % 1.981 Hi

08.dec. 4.13- 22.0- 1.93 % 1.877 Lo

##..... xx.xx xx.xx x.xxx% 2.20+ hi

My theory is:

When the GAP RATIO becomes small enough, the benefit of the Carry Trade becomes so small that Hedge Funds no longer like the risk/reward in the trade, and they begin to unwind their positions. They do this by Selling TBonds and repaying short term loans. This will tend to put downward pressure on Bonds = upward pressure on TNX, which will widen the gap again.