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THIS ARTICLE IS CONTINUED FROM HERE (CLICK) --- Overall evidence, however, suggests the extent of Al-Qaeda funding is limited, a result perhaps of successful US attempts to block finance to and from Al-Qaeda or of limits on communication placed on it by the Taliban. Much Al-Qaeda support is difficult to quantify as it is in the interests of Bin Laden to keep his involvement covert. It is also difficult to assess the validity of US government agency and mass media claims about him, as there are some indications that they exaggerate his influence. In any case, the embassy bombers received little funding. Ahmad Ressam and his associates, arrested in the USA and Canada in 1999, were involved in either credit card fraud or petty theft; and terrorists associated with Bin Laden arrested in Jordan appear to have financed themselves by bank robberies, burglaries and forged checks, and were planning ransom kidnapings to raise funds.
Modus Operandi
Bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman, direct a number of support and strike operations using their own support activists and attack teams. Al-Qaeda's elite consists of experienced Egyptian, Algerian and Yemeni cadres. Al-Qaeda has a high capacity for infiltrating any Muslim community irrespective of size and geographic location. Individually, Al-Qaeda members have joined Muslim communities from New Zealand to India, and the organization has infiltrated both authoritarian and democratic states.
In the authoritarian states of the Middle East, especially in the oil-rich Gulf, Al-Qaeda enjoys the support of Islamic philanthropists and foundations. In emergent democracies, it infiltrates by providing goods and services to Muslims in need. In democracies, it operates by forging links with influential Muslim communities with the aim of soliciting and channeling their support to Muslim communities in need elsewhere.
As the lead-up to the 1998 bombings demonstrated, several Al-Qaeda infiltrators were sleepers for several years. In some cases, members who have left have been re-approached by Al-Qaeda leaders for assistance, and have returned to the fold. The Western intelligence community believes there are many sleepers in Europe and North America waiting to be activated
State response
The fight against Al-Qaeda poses several challenges. Bin Laden has built an organization difficult to disrupt, degrade and destroy. The intelligence community is unfamiliar with the network's fluid and dynamic structure and the past offers little guidance. The time-tested strategy to destroy a politically motivated armed group is to target the core and penultimate leadership, but in Bin Laden's case, this is a difficult proposition.
In Sudan, several rings of Sudanese as well as Al-Qaeda bodyguards protected him and in Afghanistan, the Taliban provides security as well as Al-Qaeda bodyguards. If Bin Laden is eliminated, he is likely to be replaced by another Islamist, although none in the second tier possess his charisma. The penultimate leadership is operationally significant, and so Al-Qaeda is likely to remain operational even if Bin Laden is captured or killed. Both his contemporaries and successors are likely to draw lessons from the unique experience and expertise of long-range land and sea operations nurtured by Bin Laden.
Al-Qaeda is resilient for four principal reasons: - it is the symbol of resistance against Western domination. Although Bin Laden is a veritable icon of terrorism to the West, throughout of the Islamic world he is seen as the only leader that can stand up to the big Satan (the USA) and the little Satan (Israel). To draw maximum support, Al-Qaeda created the 'World Islamic Jihad Against the Jews and Crusaders'. As such, Al-Qaeda has a ready base of recruits, supporters and sympathizers.
To deepen and widen Al-Qaeda 's reach, Bin Laden departs from tradition and embraces a pan- Islamic view. As a result, Al-Qaeda draws the support of both Arab and non-Arab Muslims. With time, Al-Qaeda's vast active and potential support base will grow and mature; - Al-Qaeda has built strategic depth by maintaining leadership and operational links with some of the largest and deadliest Middle Eastern and Asian terrorist groups. As an experienced practitioner, Bin Laden's stature and personal relationships with the leaders of these groups facilitated Al-Qaeda links. Bin Laden's generosity with funds and, more importantly, words of praise, have enabled him to cement strong working relationships at both leadership and operational levels. Although conceptualized, planned and even financed by Al-Qaeda, the targeting end of terrorist operations will be by constituent groups such as GIA, MILF, and ASG. Attributing individual attacks and finding the perpetrators will be a long process; - Landlocked Afghanistan provides Al-Qaeda with a political, security and geographic shield, which, by imposing sanctions, the international community has only strengthened.
Afghanistan's isolation has major implications for intelligence collection, especially for the generation of high-grade intelligence, which usually comes through human sources. Without people-to-people contact it is difficult to influence their thinking; - Al-Qaeda physically and/or ideologically penetrates international and domestic Islamic NGOs throughout the world. Thus the Al-Qaeda infrastructure is inseparably enmeshed with the religious,-social and economic fabric of Muslim communities worldwide. Host countries such as the UK, Canada, Australia, and even the USA, are hesitant to investigate Islamic charities, including foreign charities. Nonetheless, Al-Qaeda is not invulnerable. As was seen in Sudan in 1995, diplomatic and political pressure and shortage of resources can threaten the network. Similarly, when Libya pressured Sudan, Bin Laden asked Al-Qaeda's Libyan members to leave the group.
Thanks mainly to US intelligence agencies, Al-Qaeda has suffered gravely since the embassy bombings but it still retains a high capacity to replenish its losses and wastage. However, Al-Qaeda can be destroyed with the allocation and sustained application of resources, political courage, legal and diplomatic tools. The key to disrupting, degrading and destroying Al-Qaeda lies in developing a multi-pronged, multidimensional and multinational strategy that targets the core and the penultimate leadership and the network's sources of finance and supplies. In Afghanistan, Al-Qaeda forces fight alongside the Taliban. If the Taliban defeats the Northern Alliance, Western intelligence and security agencies fear tens of thousands of foreign and Afghan fighters would then be free to engage in other treaters and other conflicts in which Al-Qaeda might take an interest. Russia, India, China, Europe and the USA have regional interests in Chechnya, Kashmir, Xinjiang, the Balkans and the Middle East, all conflicts in which Islam is a central factor. Dr. Rohan Gunaratna is Research Fellow, Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, University of St. Andrews, Scotland.
GRAPHIC:Photograph 1, A video grab dated 19 June 2001 shows Osama bin Laden. (Source: PA NEWS)
GRAPHIC: From top to bottom, this chart represents the evolution of the Al-Qaeda network from its origins as an anti-Soviet resistance movement supported by a range of sponsors, to a pan-Islamic militant network. The influence of Prince Turki bin Faisal bin Abdelaziz and Abdullah Azzam at different stages of Osama bin Laden's development can be seen. (Source: Rohan Gunaratna) LOAD-DATE: July 31, 2001 Copyright © 2001 Jane's Information Group Limited, All Rights Reserved
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