Here we go again...fifth time at historic Churchill Downs...but the original venue for 2000 was supposed to be beautiful Santa Anita where such SoCal stick-outs as Kona Gold (Sprint) and Ladies Din (Mile) would be closer to locks than their shaky shipper status at CD. There are a few potential superstars on the program with much to prove....Riboletta (Distaff) looks to join the ranks of the great fillies and mares that have used the BC to cinch an Eclipse award (in her case, maybe more than one)...Irish-bred Petrushka (F&M Turf) has been beating the best of Europe and the feeling is that if she can handle three tight turns, she’ll romp over these...Montjeu (Turf) was the best horse on the planet as recently as two months ago but he’s tailed-off in his last two and thus has the toughest task on Saturday…and then there’s Fusaichi Pegasus (Classic)...Kentucky Derby winner, Preakness loser, looking to go out in style...off one prep race.
All indications are that this will be a hum-dinger betting program. Look for no more than four favorites to win the 8 races but no less than two. The most reliable races at CD have been both Juvies and the Distaff…the grass races (Miles and Turfs) are the least reliable with 0/8 (yes, zero) winning favorites. If you’re just looking to impress someone with a win in the Classic, the best bet is a 4-horse exacta box and trifecta box on the first four betting choices (24 bets each)...but that won’t pay the rent.
It’s never a good idea to ignore Lukas or Pat Day in the Breeders’ Cup or at Churchill...maybe a rider will have the kind of day Gary Stevens had here in ’98 (3 wins and 3 seconds)...Bailey, Day and McCarron have, between them, won all four Classics at CD and 11 overall. Santos is the only rider to have won the Turf twice and Mott is the only trainer to do the same...
The Baffert contingent did not get their typical sizzling workouts in at SA, shipped to CD late...
Canani talks up Tranquility Lake (F&M Turf) more than Ladies Din (Mile)...
Solis looking for his first BC win with Kona Gold as his only mount...
Desormeaux on local FoxSports 11/1, high on his mount, German filly Catella, in the F&M Turf...
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Watch it on NBC...1pm ET.....Good Luck!
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