Earthquakes
‘Great earthquakes in one place after another’
The above statement was made by Jesus on the mount of olives in response to the apostles query about what will be the sign of his return. Some exact quotes are shown below:
Matthew 24:
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And ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet.
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For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in divers places.
Luke 21:
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Then said he unto them, Nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom:
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And great earthquakes shall be in divers places, and famines, and pestilences; and fearful sights and great signs shall there be from heaven.
As a result many Christians believe that Jesus presence would come at a time when earthquakes were numerous. They also believe that there would be an increase in number and their destructive power during the time of christs return. Some have listed evidence to support the fact that earthquakes have indeed increased in their number and power.
Critics however, argue that this evidence is flawed and that there has been no increase in earthquakes. Some of these critics even Christian ones argue that this is irrelevant as Jesus was merely stating that there would be earthquakes and not that there would be an increase in their number or power. As a result these ones argue that the evidence doesn’t show an increase and that this doesn’t matter as Jesus meant to simply state that there would be earthquakes at the time of his return.
This latter argument doesn’t make a great deal of sense though, because Jesus was explaining to his disciples what would be the sign of his return. The inference is that during Christs presence there would be an increase in earthquakes, otherwise he may as well have not stated earthquakes as a sign of his presence if they were no different to any other time period. Take the crusades for example, if it were proven there were as many earthquakes at this time as there are now then we couldn’t use earthquakes to determine at which point Christ returned, especially if at the height of these crusades there were also major wars and famines etc.
No, it is quite clear that when jesus made this statement he was suggesting that these would be a clear sign of his presence. And to make them a clear sign they would have to be either more numerous or more destructive.
This has happened in the case of war as no other century has seen more death through the massive wars that have rocked the world through WW1, Spanish civil war, WW2, Korean war, Cold war, Vietnam, Falklands, Oil wars etc. etc.
Similarly pestilence and disease have become dramatically more prominent, especially following WW1 when some 20M people died of influenza. Of course many of the old killers of the last millennium have been largely reduced in the western world, but others have sprung up in their place i.e. cancer, aids, MRSA, etc. etc. some of these diseases can actually adapt to beat the cure.
Famine is one that always amazes me because even though the world has better communication than ever, statistics indicate that some half of the worlds population is malnourished. The ‘feed the world’ moves in the 80s and 90s prove how big an issue this has become in the last few decades.
Given the above it would seem reasonable that during the ‘last days’ earthquakes would also become more numerous and deadly than ever before.
The object of this paper is to test the hypothesis that earthquakes have increased and become more powerful than ever before since 1914AD.
The chart below has been extracted from the following website http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/world/historical.php. This only deals with earthquakes that are above 8.5 magnitude on the richter scale.
2007
Southern Sumatra, Indonesia M 8.5 Fatalities 25
2005 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia M 8.6 Fatalities 1,313
2004 Sumatra M 9.1 Fatalities 227,898
1965
Rat Islands, Alaska M 8.7
1964 Prince William Sound, Alaska M 9.2 Fatalities 128
1963 Kuril Islands M 8.5
1960 Chile M 9.5 Fatalities 1,655
1957
Andreanof Islands, Alaska M 8.6
1952
Kamchatka M 9.0
1950 Assam M 8.6 Fatalities 1,526
1938
Banda Sea, Indonesia M 8.5
1923 Kamchatka M 8.5
1922
Chile M 8.5
1906 Off the Coast of Esmeraldas, Ecuador M 8.8 Fatalities 1,000
1896
Sanriku, Japan M 8.5 Fatalities 27,000
1868
Arica, Peru (now Chile) M 9.0 Fatalities 25,000
1755 Lisbon, Portugal M 8.7 Fatalities 70,000
1730 Valparasio, Chile M 8.7
1700
Cascadia Subduction Zone M 9.0
1687 Lima, Peru M 8.5 Fatalities 600
In a graph format this looks like:
So what does this indicate? Well according to the data, pre 1914 between 1687 and 1906 (to be precise) there were 7 major earthquakes and none of these were above M9.0. Since 1914 there have been 13 major earthquakes and 3 of these exceeded M9.0. This is an increase of some 85% and the ratio of time is 2:1.
Whilst there may be other factors to consider, from this information alone one could rightly say that since 1914 there has been a dramatic increase in the number of large earthquakes and their power.
Lets look at the next increment of M0.6 between M7.9 and M8.5 to see if this trend continues:
2008 Eastern Sichuan, China M 7.9 Fatalities 21,500
2007
Kepulauan Mentawai region, Indonesia M 7.9
2007
Near the Coast of Central Peru M 8.0 Fatalities 514
2007
Solomon Islands M 8.1 Fatalities 54
2007
East of the Kuril Islands M 8.1
2006
Kuril Islands M 8.3
2006
Tonga M 8.0
2004
North of Macquarie Island M 8.1
2003
Hokkaido, Japan Region M 8.3
2002
Denali Fault, Alaska M 7.9
2001
Near the Coast of Peru M 8.4 Fatalities 138
2000
New Ireland Region, Papua New Guinea M 8.0 Fatalities 2
2000 South Indian Ocean M 7.9
2000
Southern Sumatera, Indonesia M 7.9 Fatalities 103
1998
Balleny Islands Region M 8.1
1996 Andreanof Islands, Alaska M 7.9
1994
Bolivia M 8.2 Fatalities 5
1986
Andreanof Islands, Alaska M 7.9
1985 Michoacan, Mexico M 8.0 Fatalities 9,500
1976
Mindanao, Philippines M 7.9 Fatalities 8,000
1974
Near the Coast of Central Peru M 8.1
1970
Colombia M 8.0 Fatalities 1
1970 Chimbote, Peru M 7.9 Fatalities 66,000
1966
Near the Coast of Peru M 8.1 Fatalities 125
1960 Arauco Peninsula, Chile M 7.9 Fatalities Several
1958
Kuril Islands M 8.3
1957
Gobi M 8.1 Fatalities 30
1957 Guerrero, Mexico M 7.9 Fatalities 68
1954
Spain M 7.9
1949
Queen Charlotte Islands, British Columbia, Canada M 8.1
1946 Nankaido, Japan M 8.1 Fatalities 1,330
1946
Samana, Dominican Republic M 8.0 Fatalities 100
1946 Unimak Island, Alaska M 8.1 Fatalities 165
1945
Makran Coast, Pakistan M 8.0 Fatalities 4,000
1944
Tonankai, Japan M 8.1 Fatalities 998
1943 Illapel M 8.2 Fatalities 25
1942
Off the coast of central Peru M 8.2 Fatalities 30
1942
Guatemala M 7.9 Fatalities 38
1940 Callao, Peru M 8.2 Fatalities 249
1938
Shumagin Islands, Alaska M 8.2
1934 Bihar, India M 8.1 Fatalities 10,700
1933 Sanriku, Japan M 8.4 Fatalities 2,990
1932 Jalisco, Mexico M 8.1 Fatalities 45
1931
Xinjiang, China M 8.0 Fatalities 10,000
1931 Hawke's Bay, New Zealand M 7.9 Fatalities 256
1923 Kanto (Kwanto), Japan M 7.9 Fatalities 143,000
1920 Taiwan region M 8.0 Fatalities 5
1908 Off the Coast of Central Peru M 8.2
1907
Qaratog, Tajikistan M 8.0 Fatalities 12,000
1906
Valparaiso, Chile M 8.2 Fatalities 20,000
1905 Calabria, Italy M 7.9 Fatalities 557
1905 Mongolia M 8.4
1903 Southern Greece M 8.3
1899
Yakutat Bay, Alaska M 8.0
1899
Cape Yakataga, Alaska M 7.9
1897
Assam, India M 8.3 Fatalities 1,500
1891 Mino M 8.0 Fatalities 7,273
1877
Offshore Tarapaca, Chile M 8.3 Fatalities 34
1868 Ka'u District, Island of Hawaii M 7.9 Fatalities 77
1857 Fort Tejon, California M 7.9 Fatalities 1
1855 Wellington, New Zealand M 8.0 Fatalities 4
1843 Leeward Islands M 8.3 Fatalities 5,000
1835 Concepcion, Chile M 8.2 Fatalities 500
1821 Camana, Peru M 8.2 Fatalities 162
1812
New Madrid Region M 8.0
1811 New Madrid Region M 8.1 Fatalities Several
1787
Puerto Rico M 8.0
1668 Anatolia, Turkey M 8.0 Fatalities 8,000
1556
Shensi, China M 8.0 Fatalities 830,000
In graph format this look like:
So what does this second lot of data indicate? Well according to the data, pre 1914 between 1556 and 1908 (to be precise) there were 22 major earthquakes. Since 1914 there have been 47 major earthquakes. This is an increase of approx 113% and the ratio of the time is 4:1.
Again whilst there may be other factors to consider, which we will in due course, from this information alone one could rightly say that since 1914 there has been a dramatic increase in the number of medium - large size earthquakes.
To be continued…
